By Ramakant Chaudhary
In a dramatic turn of events that rivaled the plot twists of a Bollywood blockbuster, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious in the Haryana Assembly elections, securing a historic third consecutive term. The election results, which saw early leads for the Congress Party quickly evaporate, have left political analysts, pollsters, and voters alike in awe of the BJP’s electoral prowess.
Rollercoaster counting day
As counting began at 8 AM, early trends suggested a Congress Tsunami, prompting early celebrations within the party ranks. By 8:30 AM, Congress workers were distributing Jalebis, confident of their impending victory. However, their jubilation was short-lived. As the clock struck noon, the political theater dramatically shifted, with the BJP surging ahead.
The final tally shows the BJP securing 48 seats in the 90-member Haryana Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 46. This unexpected turnaround has not only stunned the Opposition but also reaffirmed the BJP’s dominance in the state’s political arena.
BJP’s Triumph: Five key takeaways
- Breaking the Jinx: The BJP’s third consecutive win in Haryana is unprecedented. No party in the state’s history has achieved this feat, making it a landmark victory. This is particularly remarkable considering the BJP was a minor player in Haryana politics before 2014.
- Overcoming Anti-Incumbency: Despite facing a decade-long anti-incumbency wave, the BJP managed to retain power. The party’s last-minute leadership change, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as Chief Minister, initially seemed risky but has now proven to be a masterstroke.
- Caste Arithmetic: The BJP’s success can be attributed to its strategic consolidation of non-Jat votes. In a state where Jats form a significant voting bloc and have dominated the political landscape for years, the BJP’s ability to create a winning coalition of other communities is noteworthy.
- Momentum for Future Battles: This victory provides the BJP with crucial momentum as it prepares for upcoming elections in other states. The win in Haryana could set a positive tone for the party’s campaigns in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Delhi.
- Electoral Management: The BJP’s triumph underscores its expertise in electoral management and strategic ticket distribution. The party’s ability to navigate complex caste equations and field winning candidates has once again proven effective.
Congress’s Conundrum: Five factors behind defeat
- Over-reliance on Jat Voters: The Congress heavily depended on the Jat community, which comprises about 27% of the state’s electorate. This strategy backfired as the BJP successfully mobilized other communities.
- Internal Feuds: Infighting, particularly between Dalit leader Kumari Selja and former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda, weakened the party’s campaign. The failure to present a united front cost the Congress dearly.
- Candidate Selection Woes: The party’s delayed and piecemeal announcement of candidates, with the final list released on the last day of nominations, led to rebellion among aspiring candidates and their supporters.
- Overconfidence: Buoyed by its performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections where it won 5 out of 10 seats, the Congress became complacent. Its campaign, focused primarily on farmers’ protests and the Agnipath scheme, failed to resonate with voters across the board.
- Lopsided Ticket Distribution: The selection of 72 candidates loyal to Hooda alienated other factions within the party, leading to discontent and reduced enthusiasm among party workers.
Saffron bloom, Opposition gloom
The BJP’s victory in Haryana demonstrates the party’s resilience and adaptability in the face of challenges. It has successfully fended off anti-incumbency sentiments and internal leadership changes to emerge stronger. This win not only cements the BJP’s position in Haryana but also sends a strong message to the Opposition about the party’s electoral machinery.
For the Congress, this defeat serves as a wake-up call. The party needs to introspect and address its organizational weaknesses, internal conflicts, and over-reliance on traditional vote banks. As the political landscape evolves, the Congress must reinvent its strategy to remain relevant in Haryana and beyond.
The Haryana Assembly election results have once again highlighted the unpredictable nature of Indian politics. As the BJP celebrates its hat-trick, the focus now shifts to how this victory will impact national politics and the upcoming elections in other states. One thing is certain: the BJP’s win in Haryana has set the stage for an intense political battle in the run-up to the 2024 general elections.
Ramakant Chaudhary is senior journalist and currently working with PRP Group as Content Head. He has worked in various editorial roles with Financial Express, Mint (Hindustan Times Group), The Times Of India, Jagran Post (Dainik Jagran Group), The Pioneer, and The Political and Business Daily. He writes going beyond headlines on: politics, government policy, economy, infrastructure, real estate, education, social issues, lifestyle, and health.