-by Udayabhanu Mohanty
A recent news report in the Indian Express on August 8, 2024, detailed an incident where 500 people attempted to enter India from Bangladesh through Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal. This incursion was successfully thwarted by the Border Security Force (BSF). The BSF’s statement without giving details said: “Today afternoon, Bangladeshi nationals were observed gathering near the International Boundary in two sectors. These gatherings were prompted by fears of attacks by protesters within Bangladesh. BSF personnel, demonstrating exceptional vigilance and proactive measures, swiftly responded to these situations, ensuring the security of the border and the safety of the gathered Bangladeshi nationals.” The BSF handled the issue promptly and humanely, ensuring the safety of those involved was not compromised.
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her subsequent flight to India, has plunged the country into violence and lawlessness. These events underscore the reality of living in a VUCA world—one characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. Understanding and preparing for such uncertain situations is crucial for managing associated risks effectively. Several important insights can be drawn from the situation in Bangladesh, particularly concerning the management of the Indo-Bangladesh border.
One of the key lessons from this turmoil is that in international relations, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests. This is especially pertinent for India and Bangladesh, which share a 4,096-kilometre-long international border. This extensive border includes significant stretches in West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, and Mizoram, making its management a complex and crucial task. It is a diverse terrain consisting of plains, rivers, hills, and jungles, with minimal natural obstacles. The densely populated border areas often see cultivation extending up to the boundary. The recent unrest in Bangladesh has led to a trickle of people fleeing into India, prompting heightened vigilance from both the BSF and state police forces.
Effective communication is crucial in managing such crises. Regular contact with the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), the Bangladeshi counterpart of the BSF, and news agencies on both sides is essential for ensuring accurate information flow and preventing the spread of misinformation. Monitoring social media to curb fear-mongering posts is also vital. High-level contacts between Indian and Bangladeshi officials are crucial for managing the situation diplomatically and ensuring a coordinated response.
This situation draws parallels with the 1971 refugee crisis, when over 10 million refugees fled from erstwhile East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) to India. Although the current influx is much smaller, it highlights the persistent challenges of managing such crises effectively.
The recent unrest in Bangladesh serves as a stark reminder of the VUCA world we live in. For India, managing the Indo-Bangladesh border effectively during such times is paramount. By focusing on enhanced vigilance, effective communication, social media monitoring, and diplomatic engagement, both countries can navigate these uncertain times more effectively, ensuring peace and stability along the border. By drawing on these insights, India can better prepare for and manage the complexities of border security in a VUCA world, ensuring that both national security and humanitarian considerations are balanced effectively.
