Malik added that Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis must realise that he does not have a majority and his government will be defeated in the floor test if he doesn’t resign.

He tweeted a message in Hindi saying, “We will succeed.”

अगर फलक को जिद है बिजलियाँ गिराने की,

तो हमें भी जिद है वहीं पर आशियाँ बसाने की …

हम होंगें कामयाब ।@NCPspeaks @MumbaiNCP

Meanwhile Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said that by disregarding the institutions and Constitution, the BJP is repeating in Maharashtra what they did after the Karnataka polls.

Blaming the BJP and Centre for offering no help even after 12,000 farmers committed suicide in the state, she asked if the party is now reaching a stage where it is ‘openly kidnapping the mandate’.

टीवी दिखा रहा है कि भाजपा महाराष्ट्र में संस्थाओं, संविधान को ठेंगा दिखाते हुए कर्नाटक का खेल फिर से दोहराना चाह रही है।

महाराष्ट्र में 12000 किसानों ने आत्महत्या कर ली। उनके लिए भाजपा सरकार की जेब से तो मदद नहीं निकली।

क्या हम जनादेश के खुले अपहरण के दौर में पहुँच चुके हैं?

— Priyanka Gandhi Vadra (@priyankagandhi) November 25, 2019

NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal said on Sunday night that only one or two of the party MLAs were not there at the Grand Hyatt hotel. He added with Ajit Pawar’s defection, two parties have been formed. “Pawar sahab (Sharad Pawar) is keeping his views forward and people will understand what is right and what is wrong,” he told.

Meanwhile, Jayant Patil said after Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar’s meeting that “a government formed at night will end to be at night. Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister are there, so they are meeting each other. They both will divide all the portfolios among themselves. After remaining ensconced in his south Mumbai residence throughout Sunday, NCP leader and newly-anointed deputy CM Ajit Pawar met Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis late night and held closed-door discussions.

Senior BJP leaders Chandrakant Patil, Vinod Tawade and Girish Mahajan attended the meeting held at the official residence of the chief minister, party sources.

A late night tweet from the CMO Maharashtra, however, said the CM and the Deputy CM discussed various measures for rain-hit farmers.

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Negotiations on government formation have dragged on for the 13th day since the election results were announced. At a meeting held this morning, Sena MLAs passed a resolution, authorising Uddhav Thackeray to take a “final decision” on government formation in Maharashtra.

Earlier in the morning, Raut said there have been no talks yet between RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and Uddhav Thackeray on government formation in the state. He also expressed confidence that MLAs of the Sena, and the opposition Congress and NCP “would not cross sides”.

The BJP should show it has 145 MLAs in its support and form the government, he said. “When you say the mandate is for ‘Mahayuti’, the mandate is also for what was agreed upon when the alliance was formalised. The mandate is for having a Shiv Sena chief minister,” he said.

Raut criticised state minister and BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar for saying that Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is “like a Shiv Sainik”. “If you think you are from the Shiv Sena, behave like one. For the Shiv Sena, the given word is very important. For us it is like ‘pran jaaye par vachan na jaaye’ (promise has greater value than life),” he said.

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SOURCES TOLD TO NEWS MANTRA THAT PAWAR WILL SOON AGAIN MEET TO SONIA .PAWAR USING HIS OLD FRIEND PRANAB MUKHARJEE AND KHARGE TO CONVINCE SONIA TO SUPPORT AS IT WILL BE START OF NON BJP ALLIENCE . PAWAR SUGGESTED THIS WILL GIVE STRONG MSG TO OTHER SMALLER PARTIES IN STATE . SONIA GANDHI ALSO TOLD PAWAR TO GO AHEAD BUT CONG IS NOT IN HURRY TO ANNOUNCE SUPPORT .PARTY STILL FOLLOWING WAIT AND WATCH .

MEANWHILE SHARAD PAWAR ANNOUNCED THAT political alternative can be worked out in Maharashtra if the Shiv Sena declared that it has snapped ties with the BJP.

Maharashtra is seeing a stand-off between the Sena and its ally BJP over power sharing after the two parties won a simple majority in the October 21 assembly election.

“Nothing like it if the BJP gives the Shiv Sena chief minister’s post. But if the BJP is refusing, an alternative can be given. But the Sena should declare that it is no longer associated with the BJP and NDA. Alternative can be provided after that,” NCP chief spokesperson Nawab Malik said.

Sources in the Sharad Pawar-led party also said that it told the Sena leadership on Tuesday morning that Mr Sawant, the lone Sena minister in the central government, should resign before a new political alignment for government formation can be explored.

“Arvind Sawant should walk out of the government. Only then NCP will open its cards,” the sources said. No party or alliance has staked claim to form government in Maharashtra after the October 24 poll results, as the BJP and Sena are engaged in a tussle over chief minister’s post.

The NCP will be forced to think about alternative if the BJP-Shiv Sena combine fails to form government, state NCP chief Jayant Patil had said earlier on Tuesday.

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The Sena, has claimed that the BJP had agreed to a 50:50 power share in the state ahead of the general elections. the Sena claimes a rotational system for the Chief Minister’s post and half the state’s ministerial berths.

In his letter to Mohan Bhagwat, Mr Tiwari said the state has delivered a mandate in favour of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. But the BJP’s failure to follow ‘coalition dharma’ is delaying the formation of new government in Maharashtra. Therefore, the RSS “should intervene and resolve the issue,” the letter read.

There has been no response from the RSS but a Nagpur based and RSS supported news paper TARUN BHARAT targeted shivsena for power tussel . Without naming Sanjay Raut, “Tarun Bharat”, said the leader was hurting the chances of BJP-Sena alliance to come to power in Maharashtra.

The pro-right wing daily also called him a “joker” and said “his attempts to portray a picture that Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is isolated in the BJP is nothing but pure entertainment.”

Sanjay Raut, the Sena’s Rajya Sabha member and executive editor of its mouthpiece “Saamana”, has been at the forefront of voicing his party’s demands over equal distribution of power and sharing of the chief minister’s post with the BJP in the next Maharashtra government.

The Marathi daily published an editorial titled “Uddhav and Betaal” today which said: “Late Balasaheb Thackeray spent his entire life for wresting power from the Congress and NCP. But this Betaal is
trying hard to shatter his dreams and there will be no disappointment like this to see the Sena dragging behind one loud-mouth.”

Furious with the lack of response from the BJP camp, the Sena has even announced that it was ready to go with Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress to form government.

Even after a meeting between Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and BJP chief Amit Shah, the BJP has not issued response. After the meeting on Monday morning, Mr Fadnavis told reporters that there is a need to form the government in Maharashtra at the earliest and it would be formed.

There was no word on how the BJP would go about it or on any negotiation with the Sena.

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दरअसल दिल्ली में नरेंद्र और मुंबई में देवेन्द्र का नारा देने वाले मुख्यमंत्री देवेन्द्र फणनवीस के बारे में कहते हैं उनमें पुणे की पेशवाई का खजाना देखने वाले फणनवीस परिवार का खून बहता है और वो हिसाब किताब बखूबी जानते हैं . पांच साल की सरकार में उन्होने खूब ये किया भी और लोग ये कहने लगे कि महाराष्ट्र की राजनीति में एक से दस तक केवल फणनवीस ही है लेकिन इस बार उनकी चाल उन पर ही उल्टी पड गयी.

फणनवीस ने पहले तो बीजेपी में अपने सारे प्रतिद्वंदी नेताओं को किनारे किया . वरिष्ठ नेता एकनाथ खडसे को मंत्रिमंडल से हटाया और फिर टिकट भी नहीं दिया . फिर चिक्की घोटाले में पंकजा मुंडे का कद घटाया और पंकजा तो चुनाव तक हार गयी . शिक्षा मंत्री रहे विनोद ताव़डे को पहले एक मंत्रालय छीनकर कट टू साईज किया और बाद में चुनाव तक नही लडाया . आवास मंत्री रहे प्रकाश मेहता को भी टिकट नही दिया. केन्द्रीय मंत्री नितिन गडकरी के खास रहे बाबनकुले को भी टिकट नहीं दिया. पूरी बिसात ऐसी बिछाई कि अबकी बार अगर बीजेपी को बहुमत मिलता तो कह पाते कि सब कुछ फणनवीस ने दिलाया लेकिन चुनाव होते होते उनकी सांस फूलने लगी ..सबके विरोध के बाद भी कई नेताओ को दूसरी पार्टी से भाजपा में लिया लेकिन उनमें से कई बडे नाम हार गये .इसके साथ ही पार्टी की राय के बाद भी शिवसेना से समझौता किया जिससे पार्टी के ही कई नेता नाराज हो गये और बागी बन गये जिससे बीजेपी कई सीटें हार गयी . कुल मिलाकर अबकी बार बीजेपी सरकार का नारा देने वाले फणनवीस की रणनीती ही चूक गयी.

अब हाल ये है कि शिवसेना जो कभी उनके साथ थी और लोग कहते थे कि फणनवीस के पास जादुई मंत्र है जिससे वो शिवसेना प्रमुख उदधव ठाकरे को मना लेते हैं .वो भी नाराज है. शिवसेना तो खुलकर उनके खिलाफ बोलने लगी है. शिवसेना को लगता था कि फणनवीस उनसे बात करके ही बयान देगे लेकिन फणनवीस ने बिना बातचीत के ही कह दिया कि सीएम तो बीजेपी का ही होगा पूरे पांच साल के लिए .उस पर कोई समझौता नही होगा .इससे शिवसेना और भडक गयी . हाल ये है कि शिवसेना अब भाजपा के केन्द्रीय नेता नितिन गडकरी और गृहमंत्री अमित शाह के अलावा किसी और से बात करने तक तैयार नही है.

अब फणनवीस दिल्ली जाकर मदद मांग रहे है . मुंबई में शिवसेना को मंत्रालय देने पर उनके ही साथियो में तकरार चल रही है . पिछले हफ्ते एक बैठक में फणनवीस ने शिवसेना को वित्त और राजस्व मंत्रालय देने का प्रस्ताव रखा था तो दो बडे नेताओं ने कह दिया कि आप अपने पास के गृह और शहरी विकास मंत्रालय ही क्यों नही देते .वैसे भी राजस्थान के सीएम के पास एक भी मंत्रालय नही .सीएम तो मुखिया होता है उसको मंत्रालय की क्या जरुरत है.जाहिर है खुद फणनवीस को भी ऐसे जवाब की उम्मीद नही होगी.

दरअसल उनका गणित ही गडबडा गया है कहां तो वो 144 प्लस की तैयारी कर रहे थे और कहां 105 तक गाडी रुक गयी .अब शिवसेना के बिना सरकार नही बनती .एनसीपी भी पिछली बार की तरह बिना शर्त समर्थन के लिए इस बार तैयार नही .यानि फणनवीस की होशियारी उन पर ही भारी पड रही है.

महाराष्ट्र के चुनाव से सबसे बडा संकेत भी यही गया है कि मुख्यमंत्री देवेन्द्र फणनवीस की कुर्सी पर पकड कमजोर हो गयी है. वो मुख्यमंत्री बन भी गये तो उनको अब सबको साथ लेकर चलना होगा .उन पर ये भी दवाब रहेगा कि वो पहले की तरह सारे फैसले अकेले ही ना कर लें.राजनीती में वैसे भी कोई पकका दोस्त या दुशमन नहो होता लेकिन राजनीती मे ये भी कहते है कि नीचे की सीढी काटने के पहले इंतजाम कर लेना चाहिये कि लौटना पडे तो पैर कहां रखें.

– संदीप सोनवलकर
(वरिष्ठ पत्रकार )

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This loss of vote share and the number of seats saw the Opposition sending taunts the BJP’s way as the Maharashtra election results started pouring in. 

However, it is not the BJP that has suffered a loss of vote and vote share in the Maharashtra Assembly election alone. Others have met the same fate. Let’s see the poll data.

The BJP had polled 1.47 crore votes in 2014 Maharashtra Assembly election. The vote share stood at 27.8 per cent of the total votes polled in the assembly election. This time, the BJP has 1.41 crore votes – around 6 lakh less than the 2014 figure – and it amounts to 25.6 per cent vote share.

The BJP had contested 260 seats in 2014 and on those seats its vote percentage was 31.15 per cent. This time, the BJP contested 164 seats out of which it had to accommodate its smaller allies as well. The vote percentage for these 164 seats is not yet available.

The Shiv Sena had contested on 282 seats in 2014, and secured 1.02 crore votes. Its vote share was 19.3 per cent. This time, the Shiv Sena, which is pushing for some “50:50 formula” agreed with the BJP, has 90 lakh votes – 12 lakh less than what it polled five years ago. Vote share of the Shiv Sena has come down to 16.4 per cent – a dip of about three percentage points.

The NCP – Sharad Pawar’s party which is the real gainer – too has suffered loss in terms of vote share though it polled more absolute votes compared to 2014. The NCP has secured 92 lakh votes in Maharashtra Assembly election this time against 91.22 lakh in 2014. But its vote share in 2014 was 17.2 per cent which has come down to 16.7 per cent.

The Congress had polled almost 95 lakh votes in 2014 Maharashtra Assembly election. This time, the Congress has 87 lakh votes – a loss of 8 lakh votes in absolute numbers. The Congress had got 18 per cent votes in 2014.The vote share has come down to below 16 per cent in 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election – a clear loss of two percentage point.

If we compare the vote percentage of these parties with their share in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, only the NCP has gained in the Maharashtra Assembly election. The BJP had got 27.59 per cent in the parliamentary polls – closer to their 2014 state polls figure.

The Shiv Sena had got 23.29 per cent vote share in the Lok Sabha election – about 6.5 per cent more than what it has polled in Maharashtra Assembly election. The Congress had got 16.27 per cent. Its state election performance is the same range.

The NCP, however, gained more than one percentage point in the vote share – improving from 15.52 per cent in the Lok Sabha election to 16.7 per cent in Maharashtra Assembly elections.

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Its clear attack on CM as  Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis had toured over 200 constituencies, out of the total 288, during his ‘Maha Janadesh Yatra’ Fadnavis had talked about the saffron alliance winning 200-plus seats.

In an editorial in its mouthpiece “Saamana“, the Sena said the mandate has rejected the notion that elections can be swept by engineering defections and splitting opposition parties. 

The Marathi daily said the “BJP broke the NCP” in such a way in run-up to elections that people wondered if the Sharad Pawar-led party had any future. “But the NCP bounced back crossing the 50-seat mark, while a leaderless Congress won 44 seats. The results were a warning to rulers not to show arrogance of power… it’s a rap on their knuckles,” said the Uddhav Thackeray-led party.

In the election BJP got 105 seats while shivsena only 56 .

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Raising the issues of economic slowdown, unemployment and farm distress to attack the government Rahul said govt just diverting attention of imp issues.

Addressing a public in Mahendragarh in he said “Our friends from the media who are under pressure, show PM Modi’s speeches 24/7. Have you ever seen the media showing news of rampant unemployment and farmer suicides. Media will only show Modi ji’s face, his speeches, talk of Article 370, moon (Chandrayaan), Modi’s picture in Corbett Park.

“Modi has just one job — to divert” the attention of the country from the real issues, he claimed. “India is being mocked at by the world. The country which used to show the way to the world, used to live with love, used to progress fast…Today one caste is fighting the other, one religion is fighting the other and the country”s pride — its economy — Narendra Modi has destroyed it by demonetisation and Gabbar Singh Tax,” Mr Gandhi said.

“What they (the BJP) are doing, that is the most dangerous is wherever they go, they make one Indian fight another. They make a Hindu fight a Muslim, Jat fight a non-Jat, people from north fight south, they will go to Maharashtra and say ”thrash and throw out the people of UP and Bihar”, and in Bihar say ”we will protect you”,” Mr Gandhi said.

“The country cannot progress through division. This country has progressed by working together. If the country will be divided, it will not be able to progress,”

Attacking the government, Mr Gandhi said unemployment is the highest in the last 40 years and farmers are committing suicide.

“When we introduced MNREGA, critics used to say it is a useless scheme. PM Modi said in Parliament that there is no scheme worse than MNREGA. Narendra Modi has no understanding of economics,” Mr Gandhi alleged.

Slamming the government’s move to cut corporate tax, Rahul Gandhi claimed that after just three days “its balloon burst and things became clear”.

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There are 8,95,62,706 voters, of which 8,94,46,211 are general electors and 1,16,495 are service voters. Up from 90,403 in 2014, the number of polling booths where people can cast their vote in Maharashtra has gone up to 95,473, reflecting an increase of 5.61 percent.

This is the first state Assembly election since Narendra Modi led the BJP to power at the Centre for a second term.

The Assembly elections are also the first since the government announced the abrogation of provisions of Article 370.

Maharashtra total candidates party wise :

BSP : 262
BJP : 164
CPI : 16
CPI (M) :8
Congress : 147
MNS : 101
NCP : 121
Shiv Sena : 126
Other Registered Parties : 892
Independant : 1400
Total : 3237

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Our prediction

MAHARASHTRA ASSEMBLY 

TOTAL 288   SEATS

BJP 128 TO 134 

SHIVSENA 65 to 73

CONG  28-34

NCP 29-32

OTHER 12 TO 17

HARAYANA ASSEMBLY

TOTAL   90 SEATS

BJP   53 TO 65

CONG  8 TO 12

OTHERS 8 TO 13

As per to the survey done by other agencies  the BJP-led NDA is expected to get 182-206 seats in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, leaving the Congress-led UPA much behind with 72-98 seats.

Among the regions of the state, Mumbai is expected to give 30-34 seats to the NDA, Konkan 32-36 seats, Marathwada 23-27 seats, North Maharashtra 19-23, Vidarbha 37-41 and West Maharashtra 41-45 seats.

The UPA is expected to bag 0-6 seats in Mumbai region, 2-6 in Konkan, 18-22 seats in Marathwada region, 12-16 in North Maharashtra region, 16-20 in Vidarbha region and 24-28 in West Maharashtra region.

2014 the BJP had got 122 seats and while Shivsena had got 63. On the other hand, the Congress had bagged 42 seats and its partner NCP had got 41. vote share of bjp was 31.15 per cent, the Shiv Sena 19.3 per cent and Congress 18 per cent. This time vote share of five percent likely to swing as slowdown ,PMC  bank scam and downtrend on MODIs popularity may be reason . 

In Haryana, the BJP is expected to bag 53 to 65 seats in the 90-member Assembly, while the Congress is projected to get only between 8 to 12 seats. others like INLD will get only 5 to 7 seats .

Region wise, the BJP is expected to get 21 seats from Ahirwal, 12 from Bagar, 10 from Jatland and 20 from Kurukshetra, as per assessment of poll pundits .

The BJP is expected to get 42.5 per cent, the Congress 21.4%, the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) 9.3 per cent and others 21.4%.

The results of the upcoming Assembly elections will be announced on October 24.

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