By Ramakant Chaudhary
It was a Sunday shocker indeed. The epicentre of “Pawar ”-ful political quake was Maharashtra, but it rattled across the political landscape of the country. In a surprise and dramatic political move, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) split and much of its top brass leaders, including Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel, and Chhagan Bhujbal, joined Eknath Shinde-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena government. Ajit Pawar was sworn-in as Deputy Chief Minister while eight other NCP leaders took oath as ministers. This political upheaval is not only seen as a blow to the alliance of Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra but also the efforts to stitch a coalition for Opposition before the final of 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Big blow to Opposition unity
The alliance of Shiv Sena (Uddhav), Congress and NCP in Maharashtra was seen as a model for the stronger Opposition unity against the BJP vis-a-vis next year’s parliamentary elections. As far as the poll prospects (general and assembly elections) are concerned, the Eknath Shinde-led BJP-Sena alliance looks shaky. As per media report, BJP’s internal survey suggests that the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is going ahead in terms of electoral gains. BJP appears to have jolted the Opposition unity efforts in Maharashtra and outside as well with the Ajit Pawar-led NCP group joining BJP.
Pawar vs Pawar
NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar, suffering the biggest setbacks of his five-decade political heft, is billed to be one of the important linchpins of the Opposition’s attempts to stand united against the BJP. But with the current “Maha” political play that gives hint of 40 of NCP’s total 53 MLAs backing Ajit Pawar, Sr. Pawar may get deprived of much electoral clout– a big blow to the Opposition plans. The Opposition looked stunned by the NCP split and took umbrage at the BJP. Opposition leaders are of the view that the split in NCP has dealt blow with the attempts of unifying Opposition in terms of public perception and optics.
Electoral gains for BJP
With the new political manoeuvre in Maharashtra politics, BJP seems to be confident of a major electoral gain in the face of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to reports published in the media, the talk between BJP and Ajit Pawar was going on for the past four months. State and central leadership of the saffron party were in touch with the nephew of Sharad Pawar. Ajit Pawar is reported to have had a meeting with senior BJP leader Amit Shah. Maharashtra is the second largest state in India in terms of 48 Lok Sabha seats, only behind Uttar Pradesh having 80 seats. Electorally, Maharashtra is quite crucial for the parliamentary elections. With Ajit Pawar’s switching side to BJP, the expanded BJP could claim all 48 seats in the state. Political experts feel that this twist could add much needed spin to the momentum of BJP to grow in Maharashtra, which the saffron party could not do so long as its association with the Thackerays.
-RAMAKANT CHAUDHARY
Ramakant Chaudhary works with PR Professionals as DGM-Content, and has worked in various editorial roles with Financial Express, Mint (Hindustan Times Group), The Times Of India, Jagran Post (Dainik Jagran Group), The Pioneer, and The Political and Business Daily. He writes on politics, government policy, economy, infrastructure, real estate, social issues, lifestyle, and health.
