IMD के मुताबिक वेस्टर्न डिस्टरबेंस के चलते उत्तर भारत में साइक्लोनिक सर्कुलेशन बना हुआ है. इसके चलते अगले दो दिनों तक यहां बारिश का दौर जारी रहेगा. साथ ही इन इलाकों में इसके प्रभाव से धूल भरी आंधी भी चल सकती है. जम्मू और कश्मीर, हिमाचल प्रदेश, उत्तराखंड, पंजाब, हरियाणा, उत्तर प्रदेश में छिटपुट बारिश हो सकती है. इसके अलवा यहां 30-40 किलोमीट प्रतिघंटे की रफ्तार से तेज़ हवाएं भी चल सकती हैं.

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The probability forecast for minimum temperature (Fig.10a) indicates that below normal minimum temperatures are likely over West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana Chandigarh & Delhi (HCD), Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim (SHWB), Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathawada and Vidharbha. Subdivisions of Punjab,East and West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Telangana and NorthInterior Karnataka (NIK) are likely to experience climatological probability for minimum temperature.

Remaining subdivisions of the country is likely to experience above normal minimum temperatures.

The probability forecast for maximum temperature (Fig.10b) indicates that all the subdivisions ofsouthern peninsular India and most of the subdivisions of central India (West and East Madhya

Pradesh, Vidharbha, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra) and few subdivisions of western

India (Gujarat region and Sourashtra& Kutch) are likely to experience below normalMaximum temperature. Remaining subdivisions of the country are likely to experience abovenormal maximum temperatures.

The probability forecast for mean temperature (Fig.10c) indicates that most of subdivisions ofIndia likely to experience below normal mean temperatures. However, above normal meantemperatures are likely to experience over Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Costal AndhraPradesh, most of the subdivisions along the foothills of Himalayas and Northeast India. Normalmean temperatures are likely to experience over Kerala and Tamilnadu.

Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall for week 1: (07 to 13 January, 2021)

• Under the influence of a Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over western parts of Afghanistan & neighbourhood in middle & upper tropospheric levels, Western Himalayan Region very likely to experience light isolated rain/snow and isolated rain over Punjab, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh on 08th January, 2021 and no weather is expected over northwest India during subsequent 5-6 days.
• Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea and another cyclonic circulation over south Tamilnadu coast & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and moderate thunderstorm, & lightning very likely over southern peninsular India during next 2-3 days.
• Under the influence of a trough in low level easterlies from Karnataka coast to Maharashtra coast in lower tropospheric levels; isolated to scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm & lightning at isolated places very likely over Maharashtra during next 2 days.
• Thereafter, under the influence of fresh spell of easterly wave, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry &Karaikal and Kerala &Mahe on 10th & 11th January, 2021.
• No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.
• Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over south peninsula & central India and below normal rain/snow likely over Western Himalayan Region during week 1 (Figs. 11 and 12).

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Intensive drives were conducted by these agencies from 24.12.2020 to 31.12.2020 by constituting about 227 teams.  These teams carried out surprise checks and inspections at more than 3000 C&D sites of which about 386 sites were found to be non-compliant with the various C&D Waste Management Rules / Guidelines and dust mitigation measures stipulated by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and the Central Pollution Control Board.  Further, an amount of approx. Rs.1.59 crore was levied as environment compensation against the defaulting agencies besides orders for stoppage of work at 12 locations.

Compliance with respect to transportation of materials related to C&D activities was also seen by the inspecting teams.  About 325 vehicles, not in conformance with guidelines related to transportation of C&D materials, were levied environment compensation charges of approximately Rs. 1.17 crore.

Such fortnightly drives are planned to be continued to enforce compliance of the C&D waste management rules and related guidelines to abate dust pollution from C&D sector, which contributes significantly to poor air quality in the region.

On Monday, Delhi recorded an air quality index (AQI) of 151, placing it in “moderate” category — a substantial improvement compared to the past three days. On January 1, Delhi’s AQI was in 441, placing it in the “severe” zone; while it was 443 on January 2, also in “severe” category; and it was 354 on January 3 in “very poor” category.

Weather scientists said the cloud cover in city helped bring the temperature up as clouds trap some of the outgoing infrared radiation and radiate it back downward, warming the ground. The inclement weather in the city is likely to persist till Wednesday, with moderate rains and thunderstorm likely on Tuesday as well, IMD scientists said.

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According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):

An active Western Disturbance lies as a middle and upper level cyclonic circulation over Central Pakistan & neighbourhood with its induced cyclonic circulation over southwest Rajasthan & neighbourhood at lower levels.

A north-south zone of wind confluence also observed today from North Punjab to Northeast Arabian Sea, with strong interaction between south westerly in association with the above Western Disturbance and lower level moist southeasterlies.

All these favorable meteorological features likely to persist till 05th January, 2021 and continue to cause moderate to intense wet spell with fairly widespread to widespread precipitation accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and hailstorm at isolated over northwest India till night of 5th January with peak activities on 3rd and 4th over the Plains (Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and north Rajasthan ) and on 4th and 5th Jan 2021 over western Himalayan region(Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand).

After cessation of wet spell, fresh northerly-northwesterly winds likely to set in over Plains of northwest India causing cold wave to sever cold wave conditions at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana and north Rajasthan from 7th January 2021 onwards.

Weather Warning during next 5 days *

04 January (Day 2):

Heavy rain/Snow very likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh.

Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Punjab and Haryana & Chandigarh.

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning and hail at isolated places very likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh; with lightning over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep.

Cold Wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Saurashtra & Kutch.

Cold Day Conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi.

Dense fog very likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan and Odisha.

05 January (Day 3):

Heavy rain/Snow very likely at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

Heavy rainfall very likely at isolated places over Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal.

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning and hail at isolated places very likely over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh; with lightning over Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep.

Cold Wave conditions very likely in isolated pockets over Saurashtra & Kutch.

Dense fog very likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan and Odisha.

06 January (Day 4):

Dense Fog likely in isolated pockets over Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Heavy rainfall likely at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Kerala & Mahe.

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning at isolated places over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and Lakshadweep.

Cold Wave to severe cold wave conditions likely in isolated pockets over Saurashtra & Kutch; Cold Wave conditions likely over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan.

07 January (Day 5):

Dense Fog likely in isolated pockets over Punjab and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.

Thunderstorm accompanied with lightning at isolated places over Coastal & South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and Kerala & Mahe.

Cold Wave to severe cold wave conditions likely in isolated pockets over Saurashtra & Kutch; Cold Wave conditions likely over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan.

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According to the Cyclone Warning Division of the India Meteorological Department (IMD):

The well-marked low pressure area over East Central & adjoining Northeast Arabian off South Gujarat coast moved west-northwestwardsand lay centered over East Central & adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 17^th October 2020.

It is very likely to movefurther west-northwestwardsand concentrate into a Depression over eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours.

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall

• Light to moderate rainfall at a few places very likely over coastal Districts of Saurashtra during next 24 hours.

 (ii) Wind warning

• Strong wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmphlikely to prevail over east central and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea during next 12 hours; 25-35 kmph gusting to 45 kmph along & off south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coasts during next 24 hours.
• It would increase, becoming Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over east central and northeast Arabian Sea from 17^th October evening and over central and adjoining northwest Arabian Sea on 18^th October.
• (iii) Sea condition

Sea condition will be rough to very rough over eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea on 17^th October and over central and northwest Arabian Sea on 18^th October; rough along & off south Gujarat and north Maharashtra coasts on 17^th October.

(iv)  Fishermen Warning

• Fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral& adjoining northeast Arabian Sea on 17^th October and over central & northwest Arabian Sea on 18^th October.

Meanwhile The Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi interacted with Karnataka Chief Minister, Shri B S Yediyurappa and Maharashtra CM Udhav Thakre on the rainfall and flood situation in various parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra .

“Spoke to CM B S Yediyurappa Ji on the rainfall and flood situation in various parts of Karnataka. We stand in solidarity with our sisters and brothers of Karnataka affected by the floods. Assured all possible support from the Centre in rescue and relief works that are underway”, the Prime Minister said.

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