Borrowers are keenly awaiting the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled from June 3 to June 5, for cues on the future direction of interest rates and home loan EMIs.

While inflation has largely remained within the RBI’s comfort zone, policymakers continue to tread cautiously amid several emerging risks. Rising global energy prices could push up transportation and manufacturing costs, while concerns over weather-related disruptions and a possible El Niño impact may lead to higher food inflation in the coming months.

At the same time, signs of slowing economic growth have complicated the policy outlook, forcing the central bank to strike a delicate balance between supporting growth and keeping inflation under control. As a result, borrowers and markets alike will be closely tracking the MPC’s commentary for any indication of the RBI’s next move on interest rates.

Kunal Rishi, Chief Operating Officer, Krisumi Corporation, said, “The RBI is currently navigating a complex macroeconomic environment, where it must carefully balance inflation management with the need to sustain growth momentum. While inflationary pressures warrant close monitoring, global uncertainties and evolving geopolitical developments continue to create challenges for economic activity. In such a scenario, maintaining confidence across industries and supporting the broader growth trajectory remain equally important policy considerations. Given the prevailing volatility in the global environment, any further rate hike at this stage could weigh on industry sentiment, particularly across interest-sensitive sectors.

In this context, we believe the RBI should maintain its growth-supportive stance. The ideal approach would be to keep rates unchanged to support economic activity. For the housing sector, lower borrowing costs are critical to sustaining homebuyer demand and enhancing affordability. A supportive rate environment would encourage home purchases, strengthen consumer confidence, and provide a positive impetus to the real estate sector, which has strong linkages with the broader economy.”

The June MPC meeting comes at a critical time, with the RBI balancing growth concerns against potential inflation risks. While a status quo on rates is widely expected, markets will closely watch the central bank’s guidance on the future policy trajectory.

For homebuyers and borrowers, the outcome could provide important signals on the direction of lending rates in the coming months. A continued growth-supportive stance would be positive for housing demand, affordability and overall market sentiment.

While an immediate impact on EMIs may be unlikely, the RBI’s commentary could shape expectations around borrowing costs for the rest of the year.

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On the inflation front, RBI’s assessment that headline CPI inflation has remained benign, with projections of 2.1 per cent for 2025–26, provides comfort to both consumers and producers. Moderation in food prices, stable core inflation (excluding food and fuel), and adequate buffer stocks are positive factors for price stability and GDP growth.

At the same time, the RBI’s acknowledgment of potential upside risks from geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and precious metal prices highlights the need for continued vigilance, he added.

Stable interest rate environment, coupled with benign inflation expectations, can help sustain investment momentum. High capacity utilisation, healthy balance sheets of corporates and financial institutions, and robust credit growth are likely to support private sector investment decisions. The government’s continued thrust on capital expenditure is expected to crowd in private investment and strengthen medium-term growth prospects, said Mr. Rajeev Juneja.

Near-term outlook suggests that food supply prospects remain positive on the back of healthy kharif production and favourable rabi sowing, said Mr. Rajeev Juneja.

RBI’s positive outlook on the external sector, particularly the expectation that merchandise exports may receive a boost from recently concluded EU-India FTA and US tariff deal. Trade diversification will help mitigate risks arising from a volatile global trade environment. However, for sustained export competitiveness continued focus on logistics efficiency, trade facilitation, and access to affordable finance for exporters, especially MSMEs, said Mr. Rajeev Juneja.

RBI’s decision is growth-supportive and confidence-enhancing for industry. A predictable monetary policy framework, combined with ongoing structural reforms and fiscal support through public capex, can help India sustain its growth trajectory at the same time navigating global uncertainties. Continued coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to strengthen India’s macroeconomic fundamentals augurs well for long-term economic prospects, says CEO and Secretary General, PHDCCI, Dr. Ranjeet Mehta.

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