Nuvama expects an NCLT order in December and completion of the demerger process by the end of FY26, adding that the move comes as aluminium, power, and zinc operations ramp up, costs decline, and leverage trends improve, factors which the firm says will strengthen the case for a re-rating once the demerger is executed.

On the potential for value creation post-demerger, Nuvama notes that Vedanta’s fair value is likely to see further improvement. The firm believes the demerger will unlock value by enhancing the valuation multiples of businesses such as aluminium, steel, and power. “We estimate our fair value of Rs 686 (ceteris paribus) shall be enhanced by Rs 84/share once the demerger comes into effect,” Nuvama stated.

Nuvama sees the highest rerating opportunity in Vedanta’s aluminium business. “Currently, all aluminium companies’ sensitivity to aluminium price change is 3–5%, but post-demerger, Vedanta Aluminium’s sensitivity is high at ~8%,” it said. “We believe with the demerger, the aluminium business shall command a higher EV/EBITDA multiple (6.0x-plus). Assuming an even 0.5x increase in multiple to 6.5x, the fair value is likely to be higher by Rs 36/share,” Nuvama said.

Vedanta’s iron and steel business, which includes a 1.5mtpa steel plant, along with captive iron ore, and a 10 MTPA merchant iron ore facility (7mtpa at Karnataka and 3mtpa at Goa), is also set for a rerating. Nuvama has valued this business at five times the FY28E EV/EBITDA, arriving at an enterprise value of Rs 77.9 billion (Rs 20/share). “We are factoring in FY27E/28E EBITDA of Rs 15.9bn/Rs 15.6bn. If we value the steel plant at replacement cost, the fair value could be ~Rs 109bn (Rs 28/share). This, including the iron ore business, can lead to a total enterprise value of Rs 159 billion (Rs 41/share); thus, an incremental value of Rs 21/share exists,” Nuvama said.

Nuvama is also bullish on the prospects of Vedanta’s power business, which recently signed a 500MW PPA from the Tamil Nadu Discom, with power supply starting from May 2026 for five years, setting it for a value boost. “Our current value implies power assets are valued at Rs 52mn/megawatt versus the capex of any greenfield plant of Rs 70–80mn/megawatt. We reckon the market shall still value it at a minimum of Rs 65mn/megawatt. If this happens, incremental value could be ~Rs 28/share,” Nuvama said.

Vedanta has proposed a demerger that will result in the creation of sector-specific pure play entities in aluminium, oil and gas, iron and steel, and power, while certain existing and new businesses will remain under Vedanta Ltd. The demerger is proposed as a simple vertical split, where for every share of Vedanta, a shareholder will receive one share in each of the five newly listed companies. The Mumbai bench of the National Company Law Tribunal has reserved its judgment on the demerger.

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ICICI Securities has maintained a Buy rating on the company with a target price of INR 1,786, while Axis Capital and Nuvama have set their target prices at INR 1,780 and INR 1,376 respectively, indicating a potential upside of up to 75% in the stock price.

Signature Global’s stock opened at Rs. 1029.90 per share on November 11, 2025, in early trading hours.

During H1FY26, the company recorded strong pre-sales of INR 46.6 billion and reported revenue of INR 12.0 billion, with collections standing at INR 18.7 billion. The company expects collections to rise significantly in H2FY26 as key construction milestones are achieved in its high-value projects located in Gurugram.

Brokerage Firm Recommendations

ICICI Securities has maintained its BUY rating and has updated the target price to Rs 1,786, suggesting the stock could increase by 75%.

The brokerage firm noted that Signature Global has delivered 57% sales booking CAGR over FY21–25, largely through affordable/ mid-income housing projects.

ICICI Securities projects that, backed by Signature Global’s robust launch pipeline with a cumulative gross development value (GDV) exceeding INR 450 billion for FY25–28E, the company’s sales bookings are expected to reach INR 119 billion in FY26, INR 127 billion in FY27, and INR 139 billion in FY28.

Axis Securities expects a 74% upside in the company’s stock price and believes that Signature Global is well-positioned to achieve this target, driven by a strong launch pipeline of over INR 130 billion planned for the second half of the fiscal year.

“We expect construction of new projects to pick up sequentially from here on, which, with healthy bookings at new launches, will drive collections and OCF,” Axis Capital said in its report.

Nuvama has also maintained its BUY rating with a target price of Rs. 1,376 per share.

“Despite being a relatively new entrant, Signature Global has emerged as one of the largest developers in the Gurugram housing market in terms of sales bookings over the past few years,” Nuvama said in its report.

“One of the biggest factors in SGIL’s success is the fact that the company has been able to acquire land at very attractive prices. On average, land/approval-related costs for the company are 10–15% of the selling price,” the report added.

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