The probability forecast for minimum temperature (Fig.10a) indicates that below normal minimum temperatures are likely over West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana Chandigarh & Delhi (HCD), Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim (SHWB), Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathawada and Vidharbha. Subdivisions of Punjab,East and West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Telangana and NorthInterior Karnataka (NIK) are likely to experience climatological probability for minimum temperature.

Remaining subdivisions of the country is likely to experience above normal minimum temperatures.

The probability forecast for maximum temperature (Fig.10b) indicates that all the subdivisions ofsouthern peninsular India and most of the subdivisions of central India (West and East Madhya

Pradesh, Vidharbha, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra) and few subdivisions of western

India (Gujarat region and Sourashtra& Kutch) are likely to experience below normalMaximum temperature. Remaining subdivisions of the country are likely to experience abovenormal maximum temperatures.

The probability forecast for mean temperature (Fig.10c) indicates that most of subdivisions ofIndia likely to experience below normal mean temperatures. However, above normal meantemperatures are likely to experience over Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Costal AndhraPradesh, most of the subdivisions along the foothills of Himalayas and Northeast India. Normalmean temperatures are likely to experience over Kerala and Tamilnadu.

Rainfall Forecast

Rainfall for week 1: (07 to 13 January, 2021)

• Under the influence of a Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over western parts of Afghanistan & neighbourhood in middle & upper tropospheric levels, Western Himalayan Region very likely to experience light isolated rain/snow and isolated rain over Punjab, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh on 08th January, 2021 and no weather is expected over northwest India during subsequent 5-6 days.
• Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea and another cyclonic circulation over south Tamilnadu coast & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and moderate thunderstorm, & lightning very likely over southern peninsular India during next 2-3 days.
• Under the influence of a trough in low level easterlies from Karnataka coast to Maharashtra coast in lower tropospheric levels; isolated to scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm & lightning at isolated places very likely over Maharashtra during next 2 days.
• Thereafter, under the influence of fresh spell of easterly wave, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry &Karaikal and Kerala &Mahe on 10th & 11th January, 2021.
• No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.
• Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over south peninsula & central India and below normal rain/snow likely over Western Himalayan Region during week 1 (Figs. 11 and 12).

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Meanwhile in BIHAR rivers like Kosi, Bagmati, Kamla Balan and Mahananda were flowing above the danger level at many places on Monday, threatening to inundate several parts of northern districts such as Muzaffarpur, Katihar, Purnia, Jhanjharpur in Madhubani and Sitamarhi.

The water level in the Ganga too is gradually increasing, according to officials.

The Central Water Commission tweeted that “the Bagmati continues to flow in a severe situation at Benibad in Muzaffarpur district”.

The State government has deployed 13 teams of the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and 14 teams of the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) in sensitive areas in districts such as Katihar, Purnia, Araria, Supaul, Kishanganj, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, Gopalganj, East Champaran, Nalanda, Saran, Bhagalpur, Madhubani, Samastipur, Sitamarhi, Saharsha, Madhepura and Buxar, said an official.

“Home guard personnel too have been deployed to inform villagers how to protect themselves in the time of flood and COVID-19,” said the official.

“Though the situation is under control now, threat looms due to heavy rain in the catchment areas of Nepal and in the State.”

The Water Resources Department has come up with a twitter hashtag where people could highlight any erosion or crack in river embankments.

With two more people died in Assam, taking the death count due to the floods this year to 44. On Friday, eight people had died in landslides in Arunachal Pradesh.

The water levels in Brahmaputra and its tributaries are expected to rise in different parts of the state. In Arunachal Pradesh, major rivers like Dibang and Siang are flowing above the danger level, government sources said.

Several embankments were breached, and roads and bridges were damaged as a result of rising floodwaters, according to reports from Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal has reviewed the situation and ordered repairs of breached embankments on war footing in Assam. Mr Sonowal has also asked all MLAs and MPs to get involved in flood rescue and relief operations.

The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) is carrying out massive rescue operations in Assam and more than 460 people have been evacuated till now, sources added. Over 21,000 people have been shifted to relief camps till now.

Apart from flood-related deaths, 24 people died in landslides triggered by rainfall in different parts of Assam.
The weather department has predicted heavy rains in the northeast .

70 per cent of Kaziranga National Park, 50 per cent each of Orang National Park and Pobitora Wildlife Sanctury has been flooded. Animals are fleeing to higher grounds.

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At present 200 Locust Circle Offices (LCO) are conducting survey & control operations in close coordination with District Administration and agriculture field machinery of the affected States. Locust control operations are in full swing in coordination with State Agriculture Departments and Local Administration. In Rajasthan 21 districts, in Madhya Pradesh 18 districts, in Punjab one district and in Gujarat 2 districts have undertaken Locust control till now. For effective control of locusts beyond Scheduled Desert Areas, temporary control camps have been established in Ajmer, Chittorgarh and Dausa in Rajasthan; Mandsaur, Ujjain and Shivpuri in Madhya Pradesh and Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh.

So far (till 26.05.2020), control operations against Locusts have been done in 47,308 hectare area in total 303 places in Rajasthan, Punjab, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh by LCOs in coordination with District Administration and State Agriculture Department. 89 fire brigades for pesticide spray; 120 survey vehicles; 47 control vehicles with spray equipments and 810 tractor mounted sprayers have been deployed for effective locust control, as per requirement during different days.

Usually, the locust swarms enter the Scheduled Desert Area of India through Pakistan for summer breeding in the month of June/July with the advent of monsoon. This year, however the incursions of locust hoppers and pink swarms have been reported much earlier because of presence of residual population of Locusts in Pakistan which they couldn’t control last season. Since 11th April 2020, locust hoppers and from 30th April, 2020, the incursion of pink immature adults has been reported in bordering districts of Rajasthan and Punjab, which are being controlled. Pink immature adults fly high and cover long distances during day hours from one place to another along with the westerly winds coming from the Pakistan side. Most of these pink immature adults settle on the trees during night and mostly fly during day.

Concerned over the early attack of locust swarms this year, the Union Minister for Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, Shri Narendra Singh Tomar chaired a meeting with the pesticide manufacturers and all related stakeholders on 6th May, 2020 to review the preparedness for locust control in the affected States.

Following directions of the Agriculture Minister Shri Tomar, a video conference was conducted under the chairmanship of Secretary (DAC&FW) Shri Sanjay Agarwal was conducted on 22nd May, 2020 with the District Administration and District Agriculture Officers of locust threatened districts of Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh along with the representatives of NDMA. Locust awareness literature, SOPs, approved pesticides and awareness videos were shared with the States in the meeting. Earlier, a video Conference was held on 5th May, 2020 with the Principal Secretary (Agriculture) and DMs of the locust prone districts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and Punjab under the chairmanship of Secretary, DAC&FW to review the preparedness and further coordination with the locust States for taking necessary action.

On 11th March, 2020 a High- Level virtual meeting on Desert Locust in South-West Asian countries was held at the office of the FAO representative in India. Representatives of four member countries (Afghanistan, India, Iran and Pakistan) and the Plant Protection Division of FAO, Rome also participated in the meeting.

The MoS (Agriculture & FW) Shri Kailash Choudhury and Secretary DAC&FW attended the meeting. It was decided to hold the virtual meetings of technical officers of member countries every Monday via Skype and nine meetings have so far been held. Advisories have been issued to the States of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Punjab regarding the locust attack and necessary measures to be taken for effective control and pesticides that are to be used for effective Locust control in the cropped area.

Currently Locust Control Offices have 21 Micronair and 26 Ulvamast (47 spray equipments) which are being utilized for locust control. On approval of the Agriculture Minister Shri Tomar, supply order for additional 60 sprayers has been placed to M/s. Micron, United Kingdom. e-Tender has been invited for the empanelling agencies to provide services of drones for aerial spraying of insecticides for effective control over tall trees and inaccessible areas. Ministry of Civil Aviation has approved “Conditional exemption to Government entity (DPPQS) for use of Remotely Piloted Aircraft System for anti-locust operations” on 21st May, 2020 and in accordance with this order, two firms have been finalized through tender for use of the drones for spray of pesticides for Locust control.

Meanwhile, supply order for procurement of additional 55 vehicles has been placed to strengthen the control

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