As India gears up for the crucial Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape is ablaze with fervour over the anticipated “400 Paar” and other strategic manoeuvres in the dance of democracy. According to the recent India Today Mood of the Nation poll survey flashed on February 8, 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is all set to secure a commanding victory with an estimated 335 seats. In contrast, the INDIA bloc, comprising a coalition of 27 Opposition parties, faces a challenging outlook, potentially encountering defeat if the elections were held today. This revelation underscores the intensity of political currents as the nation approaches this pivotal electoral milestone.

The poll survey indicates that the BJP-led NDA is poised to maintain its hold on power by securing 335 seats, comfortably surpassing the 272-seat threshold (543 strength of Parliament) required for government formation. However, despite its expected victory, the alliance is projected to experience a decrease of 18 seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA coalition emerges as the biggest gainer, poised to secure approximately 38.3 percent of the vote share in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress party is anticipated to secure 19 percent of the vote share, while the BJP is likely to clinch 39.6 percent, according to media reports following the survey’s telecast.

The BJP is projected to secure 304 out of 543 seats, reaffirming its ability to independently command a simple majority. This surpasses its previous tally of 303 seats in 2019, demonstrating the party’s continued strength and electoral prowess. The Congress may become the second-largest party with 71 seats, marking an increase of 19 seats from the previous election. The remaining 168 seats will be secured by other entities, including regional parties and independents.

A Glance Over Survey Data:

NDA—335 seats; INDIA—166 seats; Others—42 seats.

BJP—304 seats; Congress—71 seats; Others—168 seats.

Projected Seats (If Lok Sabah Polls Were Held Today):

North (180 seats)

NDA—154 seats

INDIA—25 seats

Others—1 seat 

South (132 seats)

NDA—27 seats

INDIA—76 seats

Others—29 seats 

East (153 seats)

NDA—103 seats

INDIA—38 seats

Others—12 seats

West (78 seats)

NDA—51 seats

INDIA—27 seats

Others—0

North East (11 seats spanning 7 states)

NDA—8 seats

Congress—2 seats

Others—1 seat

The survey findings underscore the electorate’s inclination towards the BJP, driven by a combination of welfare initiatives and a compelling nationalistic narrative championed by the party. The BJP’s strategic fusion of social welfare programs and a resonant narrative centered on patriotism seems to have resonated deeply with the populace, influencing their voting preferences.

PM Modi’s legacy is defined by the construction of the Ram Mandir, acknowledged by 42 percent of respondents (during the survey conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024), while 19 percent cite raising India’s global stature. The revocation of Article 370 is notable for 12 percent, and handling the Covid-19 pandemic is praised by 20 percent. Additionally, 17 percent consider the Ram temple consecration a major achievement, and 14 percent recognize maintaining a corruption-free image. Unemployment concerns 18 percent of respondents, while 24 percent see price rise as a major failure. Covid-19 management is viewed as a failure by 13 percent. Unemployment is the top issue for 26 percent of Indians, followed by price rise for 19%. Opinions on reducing corruption are divided, with 46 percent saying ‘Yes’ and 47 percent saying ‘No’

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for a potential third term, his enduring influence on the nation’s political landscape continues to be profound and far-reaching. Widely regarded as a transformative figure in Indian politics, Modi has left an indelible mark on various aspects of governance, policy-making, and national discourse since assuming office in 2014.

Modi’s leadership style, characterized by a strong emphasis on economic development, national security, and cultural identity, has resonated deeply with a broad spectrum of the Indian populace. His ambitious initiatives, such as “Make in India,” “Digital India,” and “Swachh Bharat Abhiyan,” reflect his vision of a modern, prosperous, and self-reliant India.

Furthermore, Modi’s adept navigation of international relations has elevated India’s global standing, with significant diplomatic achievements and strategic partnerships forged with key nations across the world. His proactive engagement on the global stage, coupled with a robust foreign policy agenda, has bolstered India’s position as a prominent player in international affairs.

Moreover, Modi’s leadership has been characterized by a relentless focus on inclusive development, aimed at uplifting marginalized communities, empowering women, and bridging socio-economic disparities. Initiatives such as “Jan Dhan Yojana,” “Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana,” and “Ayushman Bharat” underscore his commitment to inclusive growth and social welfare.

As Modi embarks on a potential third term, his influence on the nation’s political trajectory remains formidable, with his leadership style, policy priorities, and vision for India poised to continue shaping the country’s future direction. However, with the evolving socio-political equations and the emergence of new challenges, the extent of Modi’s influence and the trajectory of his leadership will be closely watched and debated in the coming years.

Conversely, the opposition parties face a formidable challenge in presenting a cohesive front and providing a viable alternative leadership to Prime Minister Modi. The absence of a unified stance and a clear leadership alternative within the opposition ranks emerges as a significant obstacle hindering their electoral prospects. This lack of unity and coherent leadership strategy among the opposition parties may further diminish their ability to effectively counter the BJP’s electoral dominance and sway the electorate in their favour.

Ramakant Chaudhary is senior journalist and currently working with PRP Group as Content Head. He has worked in various editorial roles with Financial Express, Mint (Hindustan Times Group), The Times Of India, Jagran Post (Dainik Jagran Group), The Pioneer, and The Political and Business Daily. He writes on politics, government policy, economy, infrastructure, real estate, social issues, lifestyle, and health

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Sharing his views on the Town Hall theme ‘Road to 2024’, Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari expressed confidence on the performance of the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, and added, “People will vote for the good governance in 2024 because we do politics of progress and development. What Congress did not do in sixty years; we did in nine. BJP will have a massive majority under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”

Taking a swipe on the Opposition’s bid to huddle together, the minister said, “When people become weak, they come together. We do politics of conviction and progression.”

On the Uniform Civil Code, he said that there should be one in law for everyone that will lead to social progression.

Speaking on pollution and public transport, Gadkari said, “We want to make Delhi free from traffic congestion and air pollution and we should underline the importance of public transport to reduce air pollution,” adding that a green infra solution is the priority of his government.

On questioned about flood like situation in the national capital, Hardeep Singh Puri, Union Minister for Housing & Urban Affairs and Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, squarely pinned blame on the Delhi government for people grappling with flood and misery. Connoting Delhi flood and urban development, the minister said, “It is entirely MR Kejriwal’s fault. Land is a state subject.”

Praising the performance of the Modi government on Swachh Bharat mission, he said, “The percentage of waste reprocessing was 17 percent in 2014, while it has now gone up to 76 percent under the leadership of PM Modi’s nine-year governance. We are committed to taking it to 100 percent.

Shedding his insights on the online gaming that hit headlines for being clamped with 28 percent of goods and services tax (GST), Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Union Minister for Electronics and Information Technology, said: “We would go back to the GST council to request it for consideration on the new regulatory framework.”

He added, “That online gaming framework is in the nascent stage and it would be evolved to be a better regulation. The Prime Minister is of the view that we should do everything for the next decade in digital space. It is better to do it right than to do it fast.”

Keeping his stand at the CNN-News 18 Delhi Town Hall, senior Congress leader and MP Shashi Tharoor praised the Modi government’s policy on G20. He said, “Foreign policy has evolved under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi. It should be kept beyond politics. Now the world cannot ignore India, and for this the BJP-led Central government should be praised.”

He said that there should be no politics on national security, but the government has given China a free hand for transgressions against India, and added, “Relations with China are at a crossroads. There is no clarity from the government on China policy. There is no discussion on China in Parliament. The ban on Chinese mobile apps was just symbolic.”

Reacting to the opposition meeting in Bengaluru, BJP MP Sudhanshu Trivedi said, “This is not happening for the first time. In 2018, many leaders had joined hands. The public is clear about who will lead them to new heights. PM Narendra Modi has given a clear vision of Amrit Kaal for the next 25 years.”

He added that while PM Modi was in America to ink several defence deals, opposition leaders, on the same day, were busy staying together in Patna to cover themselves from various scams.

Responding to it, Congress leader Manish Tiwari said, ‘The essence of any democracy is change. It brings about renewal, regeneration and rejuvenation of the democratic experiment. The principle of any functional democracy should be amenable to regular change of government. When you talk about alliances, one meeting is held in Bengaluru, while another meeting of 30 parties of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is being held in New Delhi.”

Speaking on the Parliament disruption and pandemonium, Sonal Mansingh, renowned Indian classical dancer and President’s nominated Rajya Sabha member, said, “It is unfortunate that so many important bills do not get passed due to disruptions.”

Trinamool Congress’s Rajya Sabha member Ms. Sushmita Dev said that in the previous Parliament session, BJP ministers disrupted proceedings throughout by saying “Rahul Gandhi maafi maango”. There is an undeclared emergency in the country, she added.

On the issue of opposition unity ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP MP GV L Narasimha Rao said the Congress has to fight where it is strong and other parties have to fight in their bastions. “We will ensure that nobody in opposition again gets an opposition status,” said Rao. He added on a lighter note that the only thing which was discussed in detail in the previous Parliament session was the popular song “Naatu Naatu” from the film RRR.

Speaking on the occasion, CNN-News 18 Managing Editor Zakka Jacob said, “CNN-News 18 Townhall is a big success which has brought representatives of ruling establishment and Opposition on a platform for meaningful discussions to showcase the preparedness for Lok Sabha elections 2024. The timing of CNN-News 18 Townhall is quite significant as it reflects the battle between the NDA and Opposition which have coalesced to chalk out their plans for the 2024 showdown. We have also given viewers an opportunity to interact with the participating leaders to know the optics of 2024 parliament elections. Such event empowers the viewers to make informed decisions vis-a-vis democratic process of the country.”

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In what could be seen as game changing development in the face of Lok Sabha elections 2024, the opposition bloc, constituted with 26 parties, coalesced to square off with the BJP-led ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In the meeting held in Bengaluru on July 18 (Tuesday), they christened their alliance I.N.D.I.A (India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), setting the stage for a battle of ballot against the BJP-led ruling establishment to win majority in Lok Sabha elections scheduled for 2024. Striking a chord of nationalism to cross swords with BJP’s NDA, the 26-party alliance have floated the tagline of I.N.D.I.A.: “Jeetega Bharat”.

After the joint opposition meeting in Bengaluru, the Bharatiya Janata Party has also shown its strength with a meeting of 38 members of the NDA in the national capital on the same day. During his address to NDA leaders, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, “NDA means: N=New India, D=Development, A=Aspiration.” It looks that wordplay is in the fray, heralding an intense battle in the making for 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The ruling dispensation has on several occasions used acronyms cleverly to catch the attention of the public. Taking the leaf out of the BJP’s book, the opposition has now delivered I.N.D.I.A googly to stump out the NDA on the pitch of nationalism to settle scores in the bitterly contested run-up to 2024. So, the battle lines are drawn for NDA vs I.N.D.I.A.

Punch and counter punch have started to set the optics for 2024 general elections, as leaders from both the sides claim their preparedness to emerge victorious.  According to Congress Twitter handle, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said: “This is an important meeting to save democracy and the constitution, and in the interest of the country, we have come together. With one voice, people have supported the resolution. Our alliance will be called INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).

Addressing a joint press conference with other alliance leaders, Kharge revealed that all 26 parties unanimously took the decision to set up an “11-member coordination committee” during their next meeting to be held in Mumbai. The committee, the Congress chief said, will handle matters related to leadership questions and complexities of seat sharing. Kharge further contended that the reconstitution of NDA has exposed the Modi-led BJP apprehensions about the growing strength of BJP.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi stressed the alliance’s commitment to defend the voice of people and the idea of India. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, former Chief Minister of Maharashtra Uddhav Thackray among others joined the same bandwagon to defend the positioning of the I.N.D.I.A alliance and expressed solidarity to take on the BJP-led NDA.

In his address to the NDA members, PM Modi said that the BJP-led alliance was formed to bring stability in the nation, and added: “Even when we were in the opposition, we always did positive politics. In opposition, we brought out scams of the then govts but never insulted the mandate of the people. We never took the help of foreign powers against the ruling governments. We never created hurdles in development schemes meant for the country,” reported by ANI.

“Hamare liye gathbandhan majboori nahi majbooti ka madhyam hai. NDA is not the symbol of coalition and compulsion but the symbol of coalition and contribution. In NDA, no party is small or big. We all are walking together towards the same goal,” said the PM Modi while addressing the NDA members.

Meanwhile Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari, sharing his views on the CNN-News 18 Townhall’s theme ‘Road to 2024’ held on Tuesday, expressed confidence on the performance of the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, and added, “People will vote for the good governance in 2024 because we do politics of progress and development. What Congress did not do in sixty years; we did in nine. BJP will have a massive majority under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”

Taking a swipe on the Opposition’s bid to huddle together, the minister said, “When people become weak, they come together. We do politics of conviction and progression.”

The Opposition plays a vital role in the functioning of Indian democracy by acting as a responsible check on the government, representing diverse views, and contributing to policy formulation and legislative debates. Their constructive engagement helps uphold democratic principles and ensures a more balanced and inclusive governance system.

The pertinent questions reverberating in public domain: Will the opposition bloc of 26 parties stand together to play constructive role to lead India?  In 2024 Lok Sabha elections, who will be the face of the opposition group to face off “charismatic” PM Modi?  What formula will be evolved to stich all members of the opposition alliance together on seat sharing for fighting Lok Sabha elections? How will wrinkles between TMC and CPM be ironed out, as they snuggle down in meeting in Bengaluru and fiercely fight with each other in Kolkata?  Of course, road to 2024, as it appears now, will be a bumpy ride for I.N.D.I.A, but it is the public, sab janati hai, who will decide that: “Jeetega Bharat” or “Khilega Kamal”.

-RAMAKANT CHAUDHARY

Ramakant Chaudhary works with PR Professionals as DGM-Content Development, and has worked in various editorial roles with Financial Express, Mint (Hindustan Times Group), The Times Of India, Jagran Post (Dainik Jagran Group), The Pioneer, and The Political and Business Daily. He writes on politics, government policy, economy, infrastructure, real estate, social issues, lifestyle, and health.

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It was a Sunday shocker indeed. The epicentre of “Pawar ”-ful political quake was Maharashtra, but it rattled across the political landscape of the country. In a surprise and dramatic political move, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) split and much of its top brass leaders, including Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel, and Chhagan Bhujbal, joined Eknath Shinde-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena government. Ajit Pawar was sworn-in as Deputy Chief Minister while eight other NCP leaders took oath as ministers. This political upheaval is not only seen as a blow to the alliance of Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra but also the efforts to stitch a coalition for Opposition before the final of 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Big blow to Opposition unity

The alliance of Shiv Sena (Uddhav), Congress and NCP in Maharashtra was seen as a model for the stronger Opposition unity against the BJP vis-a-vis next year’s parliamentary elections. As far as the poll prospects (general and assembly elections) are concerned, the Eknath Shinde-led BJP-Sena alliance looks shaky. As per media report, BJP’s internal survey suggests that the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is going ahead in terms of electoral gains. BJP appears to have jolted the Opposition unity efforts in Maharashtra and outside as well with the Ajit Pawar-led NCP group joining BJP.

Pawar vs Pawar

NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar, suffering the biggest setbacks of his five-decade political heft, is billed to be one of the important linchpins of the Opposition’s attempts to stand united against the BJP. But with the current “Maha” political play that gives hint of 40 of NCP’s total 53 MLAs backing Ajit Pawar, Sr. Pawar may get deprived of much electoral clout– a big blow to the Opposition plans. The Opposition looked stunned by the NCP split and took umbrage at the BJP. Opposition leaders are of the view that the split in NCP has dealt blow with the attempts of unifying Opposition in terms of public perception and optics.

Electoral gains for BJP

With the new political manoeuvre in Maharashtra politics, BJP seems to be confident of a major electoral gain in the face of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. According to reports published in the media, the talk between BJP and Ajit Pawar was going on for the past four months. State and central leadership of the saffron party were in touch with the nephew of Sharad Pawar. Ajit Pawar is reported to have had a meeting with senior BJP leader Amit Shah. Maharashtra is the second largest state in India in terms of 48 Lok Sabha seats, only behind Uttar Pradesh having 80 seats. Electorally, Maharashtra is quite crucial for the parliamentary elections. With Ajit Pawar’s switching side to BJP, the expanded BJP could claim all 48 seats in the state. Political experts feel that this twist could add much needed spin to the momentum of BJP to grow in Maharashtra, which the saffron party could not do so long as its association with the Thackerays.

-RAMAKANT CHAUDHARY

Ramakant Chaudhary works with PR Professionals as DGM-Content, and has worked in various editorial roles with Financial Express, Mint (Hindustan Times Group), The Times Of India, Jagran Post (Dainik Jagran Group), The Pioneer, and The Political and Business Daily. He writes on politics, government policy, economy, infrastructure, real estate, social issues, lifestyle, and health.

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Popular news web site NEWSMANTRA predicted last week only that Bjp Shivena will get most but not abki bar 220 paar .

Times Now

BJP Shiv Sena–230

Cong NCP—48

Others–10

TV9 Marathi-Cicero

BJP-Shiv Sena—197

Cong-NCP–75

Others–10

CNN News 18-IPSOS

BJP Shiv Sena–243

Cong NCP–41

Others–4

India Today-Axis My India

BJP-Shiv Sena–166-194

Cong-NCP–72-90

Others–22-34

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• Funds collected by the parties at the Central Headquarters was Rs 233.76 cr and expenditure was Rs 204.10 cr. Maharashtra State Units spent Rs 136.69 cr while the Haryana state units spent Rs 16.42 cr.

• BSP, AIFB, IUML & JDU are the only parties that declared no funds collected either at the central or at the state unit level despite contesting elections.

• AIFB, IUML & JDU are the only parties that have incurred no expenditure either at the central or at the state unit level despite contesting elections.

ADR India did analysis of Funds Collected and Expenditure Incurred by Political Parties: Maharashtra & Haryana Assembly Elections, 2014 This report analyses the funds received and expenditure incurred by recognized political parties, during the state Assembly elections to Maharashtra and Haryana, held in the months of September (elections announced on 20-09-2014) and October (elections completed on 22-10-2014), 2014.

• Political parties declare their expenditure under the head of Publicity Travel Expenses, Other/Miscellaneous expenses and Lumpsum amount paid to their contesting candidates.

• Political Parties that contested in Maharashtra & Haryana Assembly Elections, 2014, spent the highest, Rs 280.72 cr on Publicity, followed by Rs 41.40 cr on travel expenses, Rs 22.59 cr on Other/Miscellaneous expenses and Rs 18.16 cr on Lumpsum amount paid to candidates.

• Expenditure on publicity is 77.36% of the overall expenditure declared under various heads.

• Expenditure on other/miscellaneous is 6.23% of the overall expenditure declared under various heads. Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia, on Wednesday called for urgent introspection inside party. Mr Scindia said. “I don’t comment on statements made by others, but it is true that the Congress is in dire need of introspection. The party’s situation should be assessed and improved, that’s the need of the hour,” 

A close aide of Rahul Gandhi Mr Scindia is reportedly not happy on political development of MadhyaPradesh Congress. It also seems that he has been side-lined in home state after Rahul Gandhi resignation.

There has been speculation that Scindia could leave the party for the BJP unless he was appointed as the Madhya Pradesh Congress chief. His also supported the Narendra Modi government’s move to scrap article 370.

Meanwhile Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera said the party was trying to expose the ruling BJP over issues of corruption and highlighting its shortcomings and follies, while hoping that all leaders of the grand old party would work in this regard.

Earlier senior leader Salman Khurshid had said that Rahul Gandhi should have continued as the party president instead of giving up after the Lok Sabha elections. “We haven’t really got together to analyse why we were defeated. Our biggest problem is that our leader has walked away.”

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