An ICMR taskforce on Covid research has projected mid-November disease peak in India while warning states to meet anticipated shortfalls in health systems.
The Operational Research Group of the ICMR headed by medical specialist NK Arora however concluded that the eight-week lockdown and the health measures that were taken during the period would help India achieve 70 per cent reduction in Covid cases at the peak and 27 per cent reduction in the cumulative load.
The researchers also state in the findings that this single measure delayed the peak in India by 34 to 76 days and overall cases by 69 to 97 per cent. The estimations are based on a month-old data and will soon be published.
At current levels, the researchers project the pandemic to cost India 6.2 per cent of its GDP.
The most important finding in the research pertains to the availability of health infrastructure to manage the peak when it arrives in a staggered manner by mid- November. The country could then fall short of ventilators for the next 3.9 months, isolation beds for 5.4 months and ICU beds for 4.6 months.
