Temperature outlook Fig 10a, 10b and 10c shows predicted sub-divisional probability and the subdivision averaged minimum, maximum and mean temperature anomalies (departures from the long term normal)respectively for the month of January 2021.
The probability forecast for minimum temperature (Fig.10a) indicates that below normal minimum temperatures are likely over West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana Chandigarh & Delhi (HCD), Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim (SHWB), Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Marathawada and Vidharbha. Subdivisions of Punjab,East and West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal (GWB), Telangana and NorthInterior Karnataka (NIK) are likely to experience climatological probability for minimum temperature.
Remaining subdivisions of the country is likely to experience above normal minimum temperatures.
The probability forecast for maximum temperature (Fig.10b) indicates that all the subdivisions ofsouthern peninsular India and most of the subdivisions of central India (West and East Madhya
Pradesh, Vidharbha, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra) and few subdivisions of western
India (Gujarat region and Sourashtra& Kutch) are likely to experience below normalMaximum temperature. Remaining subdivisions of the country are likely to experience abovenormal maximum temperatures.
The probability forecast for mean temperature (Fig.10c) indicates that most of subdivisions ofIndia likely to experience below normal mean temperatures. However, above normal meantemperatures are likely to experience over Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Costal AndhraPradesh, most of the subdivisions along the foothills of Himalayas and Northeast India. Normalmean temperatures are likely to experience over Kerala and Tamilnadu.
Rainfall Forecast
Rainfall for week 1: (07 to 13 January, 2021)
- Under the influence of a Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over western parts of Afghanistan & neighbourhood in middle & upper tropospheric levels, Western Himalayan Region very likely to experience light isolated rain/snow and isolated rain over Punjab, Haryana, Northeast Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh on 08th January, 2021 and no weather is expected over northwest India during subsequent 5-6 days.
- Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea and another cyclonic circulation over south Tamilnadu coast & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and moderate thunderstorm, & lightning very likely over southern peninsular India during next 2-3 days.
- Under the influence of a trough in low level easterlies from Karnataka coast to Maharashtra coast in lower tropospheric levels; isolated to scattered rainfall with moderate thunderstorm & lightning at isolated places very likely over Maharashtra during next 2 days.
- Thereafter, under the influence of fresh spell of easterly wave, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry &Karaikal and Kerala &Mahe on 10th & 11th January, 2021.
- No significant rainfall likely over remaining parts of the country during the week.
- Cumulatively, above normal rainfall very likely over south peninsula & central India and below normal rain/snow likely over Western Himalayan Region during week 1 (Figs. 11 and 12).
